We investigate the time variations of the relative risk aversion parameter of a U.S. representative agent using 60 years of stock market data. We develop a methodology to identify the variables that explain the variations of risk aversion, based on an asset pricing model without valuation (or...

This paper investigates for the first time the effects of oil demand shocks and oil supply shocks on stock order flow imbalances leading to changes in stock returns. Through the estimation of a structural VAR model, positive oil demand shocks are able to explain almost 36% of the observed...

Using a very large data set with more than 9,700 stocks listed on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, we analyze overnight price jumps and report short-term investor overreaction to information shocks and document return reversal and predictability up to five days. For negative and positive overnight jumps,...

This research uses macro factors to explain four standard U.S. stock market risk premia, i.e. the market excess return (RM-RF), size (SMB), value (HML), and momentum (WML). We find in-sample predictive power of macro factors, in particular at a one-year horizon. Differentiating between bull and...

Our study investigates structural changes in the market P/E ratio and shows how structural changes affect long-term stock market returns. Using the cumulative sum control chart and the Bai-Perron algorithm, we identify multiple structural breakpoints in the market P/E ratio and find that those...

Trading under limited pre-trade transparency becomes increasingly popular on financial markets. We provide first evidence on traders' use of (completely) hidden orders which might be placed even inside of the (displayed) bid-ask spread. Employing TotalView-ITCH data on order messages at NASDAQ,...

In this paper, we provide new empirical evidence on order submission activity and price impacts of limit orders at NASDAQ. Employing NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH data, we find that market participants dominantly submit limit orders with sizes equal to a round lot. Most limit orders are canceled almost...

CNN Money developed the original US Stock Market Fear and Greed Index in 2012, using seven data points to measure stock market performance. The ability of the Fear and Greed Index to impact on future values of the various stock indices appears to be dependent on the observation period and the...

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts high future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S....

This paper investigates the effects of U.S. economic variables on the time variation of Chinese stock market volatility. We find that several U.S. economic variables such as the dividend price ratio, dividend yield and industrial production strongly forecast the future monthly volatilities of...