In this article, we have tested a linear Gaussian state space model and the kalman filter in testing ARMA(2,3) models of the natural logarithmic monthly market returns of the US 1838 bond debenture closed-end fund. The aim is to estimate expectations that arises from the interaction of...

In this article, we are investigating the effects of the macroeconomic variables. We have applied a Quantile regression, (including LAD), in EViews 6 to test the quantile of the natural logarithmic returns of the seasonally adjusted money supply, (M2) on the natural logarithmic returns of the...

In this article, we have tested the correlation and covariance relationships that the natural logarithmic yearly returns of the macroeconomic variables in terms of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net export of goods and services and government consumption...

The bubble theory is controversial to the efficient market hypothesis. According to the efficient market hypothesis there is no asset mispricing. All information is incorporated into the asset prices and there are no deviations from the fundamental value. The NAV price of the closed-end funds...

This article provides an explanation of the fluctuations and persistence of excess discount return in the UK and the US. On average, Guirguis six - factor model can explain 67% of the variation in the excess discount return in the UK market by taking into consideration the market effect, size,...

This article focuses on the importance of the traditional theories for the existence of the discount in relation to agency costs namely management performance. The argument that discounts reflect the quality of the management has been investigated in the past but the results were inconclusive....

In this article, we are testing the effects of an inverted Yield curve, as a result of the relationship between the short and long-term interest rates of the US Treasury with constant maturities. Our aim is to illustrate and spot cycles that created the US recession in 2008 based on Estrella and...

In this article, we extend the three-factor of Fama and French’s (1993) model in order to explain the existence and persistence of the excess discount return. We added two more factors to these four risk measures namely market, size, book-to-market, and momentum. The first one is based on the...

In this article, we compare my mathematical model with Shleifer – Vishny model of short-termism. When noise traders are optimistic, then the share price increases relative to the net asset value (NAV) and funds sell at premium and therefore at small discount. In contrast, when they are...

In this article, we analyze risk premia and time varying risk of US closed-end bond funds markets. Pessimism or optimism may drive prices far-away from their fundamental. An arbitrageur buying or selling an asset has to be cautious and limited about his investment positions. Noise traders could...