Risk managers use portfolios to diversify away the unpriced risk of individual securities. In this article we compare the benefits of portfolio diversification for downside risk in case returns are normally distributed with the case of fat-tailed distributed returns. The downside risk of a...

In the present paper an attempt has been made to estimate how political stability affects stock prices. This analysis refers to EU, Japan and the United States for the period (1997–2012). The findings of present model are in agreement with (Nixon, 2014); (Voth, 2001). The econometric model...

We investigate the use of machine learning (ML) and other robust-estimation techniques in event studies conducted on single securities for the purpose of securities litigation. Single-firm event studies are widely used in civil litigation, with billions of dollars in settlements hinging on the...

I have divided this testimony into four sections, which discuss: (1) several types of automation currently being deployed in capital markets and the financial sector, and how they affect decision-making; (2) how machine learning (ML) and automation can help and hurt workers by disruption of the...

A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected asset returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section...

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

This paper examines whether political events create, or resolve uncertainty in financial markets. In the few days following the surprise outcomes of the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. presidential election, bid-ask spreads increase, quoted depth decreases, and volatility increases. We fail...

China's admission into the WTO in 2001 heralded a new era of globalization, increasing both import competition in domestic markets and foreign opportunities for US firms. In the aggregate, the average annual profitability of US public firms during the post globalization period (2003-2019)...

We present two valuation models that we use to account for the annual data on price per share and dividends per share for the CRSP Value-Weighted Index from 1929-2023. We show that it is a simple matter to account for these data based purely on a model of variation in the expected ratio of...

In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the framework of...