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rare. Our methodology avoids look-ahead bias and addresses semantic shifts. War discourse positively predicts market …-grade corporate bonds. The predictive power of war discourse increases in more recent time periods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305
This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. We run forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003981333
This study employs the Vector Autoregressive-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VAR-AGARCH) model to examine both return and volatility spillovers from the USA (developed) and China (Emerging) towards eight emerging Asian stock markets during the full sample period, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388066
This study uses the BEKK-GARCH model to examine the return-and-volatility spillover between the world-leading markets (USA and China) and four emerging Latin American stock markets over the global financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of the Chinese stock market of 2015. Regarding return...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309325
This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. We run forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279929
This paper develops an international asset-pricing model with defaultable firms and governments that demonstrates how sovereign credit risk in Europe affects US equity market prices. The risk of a sovereign debt crisis is a threat to economic growth that reduces the value of international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940553
The study investigates the impact of financial distress (credit spread) and liquidity crises (TED spread) on size, value, profitability, investment and momentum premiums within the US Real Estate Investment Trust market. Using daily data from 2001 to 2020, we examine the presence, magnitude and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254802
In this paper, we study the effects of US target rate changes and related communications by members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on spreads for emerging market sovereign credit default swaps (CDS). Using GARCH models, we find that during the pre-financial crisis sub-sample (April...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009304122
United States Treasury securities are traditionally viewed in academics and practice as being free of default risk. In principle, nominal outstanding Treasury debt can always be repaid by issuing fiat currency. The same does not hold true, however, for inflation-indexed debt. This leads the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899219
We study the effects of political uncertainty on commodity markets from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, commodity prices and inventories decline by 6.6% and 5.7%, respectively, and convenience yields increase by 1.9% in the quarter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011968947