Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets", "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying...

Putting an end to the “earnings game” requires that CEOs reclaim the initiative by avoiding earnings guidance and managing expectations in such a way that their stocks trade reasonably close to their intrinsic value. In place of earnings forecasts, management should provide information about...

We compare the optimal trading strategy of an informed speculator when he can trade ahead of incoming news (is "fast"), versus when he cannot (is "slow"). We find that speed matters: the fast speculator's trades account for a larger fraction of trading volume, and are more correlated with...

In March 2018, the US used an immense trade deficit as an excuse to provoke trade friction with China. This study uses the EGARCH model and event study methods to study the impact of the major risk event of Sino-US trade friction on soybean futures markets in China and the United States. Results...

This paper investigates changes in the price discovery portions for two popular securities based on the S&P 500 index, namely the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the SPDR Exchange Traded Fund (Ticker SPY) for the period Jan 2002 through Dec 2013. We show a significant change in the price discovery of...

This paper focuses on the effects of political uncertainty and the political process on implied stock market volatility during U.S. presidential election cycles. Using monthly Iowa Electronic Markets data over five elections, we document that stock market uncertainty, as measured by the VIX...

We explore the stock market and option implied volatility response of the oil and gas industry to four policy events associated with the Paris Agreement and the election of Donald Trump. Our results show that the signing of the Paris Agreement had a large negative impact for the Oil and Gas...