We empirically analyse the appropriateness of indexing emerging market sovereign debt to US real interest rates. We find that policy-induced exogenous increases in US rates raise default risk in emerging market economies, as hypothesised in the theoretical literature. However, we also find...

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity...

This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out effects if the resources used to acquire public debt reduce domestic...

This paper investigates how a rise in US long-term interest rates would have an effect on other international markets. We document that a significant portion of long-term interest rates is due to term premium, which can be interpreted as compensation for inflation risk. Based on an assumed...

The risk-taking effects of low interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, "search-for-yield," can be hard to analyze due to both a paucity of data and challenges in identification. Unique, security-level data on portfolio investment into the United States allow us to overcome...

We develop a multivariate credit risk model that accounts for joint defaults of banks and allows us to disentangle how much of banks' credit risk is systemic. We find that the US and UK differ not only in the evolution of systemic risk, but in particular in their banks' systemic exposures. In...

We study how U.S. banks’ exposure to the economic fallout due to governments’ response to Covid-19 in foreign countries has affected their credit provision to borrowers in the United States. We combine a rarely accessed dataset on U.S. banks’ cross-border exposure to borrowers in foreign...

We develop a multivariate credit risk model that accounts for joint defaults of banks and allows us to disentangle how much of banks' credit risk is systemic. We find that the US and UK differ not only in the evolution of bank systemic risk, but also in their banks' systemic exposures. In both...