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contributory factor to this conundrum was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL-based models, which … accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of demand on US bond yields in the conundrum period. This impact is … shown to have been everywhere significantly negative. The fact that our model fully explains the bond yield conundrum gives …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056806
factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model … to establish a stable long-run relationship and find that the behaviour of bond rates in the last few years may well be … overestimation of bond yields is not unusual historically. Finally, our bond yield equation outperforms a random walk model in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012002995
the variation of excess bond risk premia in the sample. Additionally, the factor unveils differences between monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870652
Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900777
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Bond prices from 1897 to 1926 have not been compiled. Financial historians have made do with yield series offered by …. This paper in conjunction with previous efforts shows that stock and bond portfolios performed about the same over the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830404
We evaluate the performance of the US bond mutual fund industry using a comprehensive sample of bond funds over a long … time period from January 1998 to February 2017. In this one study, we examine bond fund selectivity, market timing and … performance persistence. We evaluate bond funds relative to their self-declared benchmarks and in terms of both gross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890281
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479018