Using monthly data for the period 1953-2003, we apply a real-time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns. Our empirical findings show that political variables, selected on the basis of widely used model...

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen politischen Zyklen und Aktienrenditen in Deutschland. Während sich die bis dato verfügbaren Studien über politisch bedingte Aktienmarktanomalien auf die USA konzentrieren, analysieren wir deren Existenz in deutschen Aktienrenditen....

Stock markets periodically experience sharp falls with some referred to as outright crashes. The extant literature has generally resorted to survey type evidence to determine the behavior of investors during such episodes. These kind of studies come to the conclusion that fundamentals play...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behaviorconcentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven byfundamentals or by non-fundamental factors(...)