We calculate increases in contributions required to achieve full funding of state and local pension systems in the U.S. over 30 years. Without policy changes, contributions would have to increase by 2.5 times, reaching 14.1% of the total own-revenue generated by state and local governments. This...

The purpose of budget rules can be explored from the perspective of the expected results, obtained by their enforcement. On one hand, they are meant to improve or at least maintain certain levels of the budgetary deficit and public debt. On the other hand, they can help or limit the economic...

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S....

This paper studies whether U.S. public pension funds reach for yield by taking more investment risk in a low interest rate environment. To study funds' risk-taking behavior, we first present a simple theoretical model relating risk-taking to the level of risk-free rates, to their underfunding,...

In this paper we document and examine unusual fluctuations in the G-Fund, which is one of five funds available in a voluntary federal government employee retirement savings vehicle called the Thrift Savings Plan. The G-Fund is managed as "internally" held debt by the United States Department of...

US federal debt held by the public rose from 35 percent of GDP in 2007 to 72 percent in 2015, reflecting the Great Recession as well as rising health and social spending, and then to 79 percent in 2019 following the 2017 tax cuts. In 2020-21 federal assistance to address the COVID-19 shock will...

There are many positive aspects associated with subnational borrowing, including additional funding and promoting intergenerational equity. However, it may also endanger fiscal sustainability and macro stability due to moral hazard and soft budget constraints, making borrowing controls justified...