We present significant evidence of out-of-sample equity premium predictability for a host of industrialized countries over the postwar period. There are important differences, however, in the nature of equity premium predictability between the United States and other developed countries. Taken...

The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper...

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

We investigate whether and to what extent multiple encompassing tests may help determine weights for forecast averaging in a standard vector autoregressive setting. To this end we consider a new test-based procedure, which assigns non-zero weights to candidate models that add information not...

This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...

This study revisits the issue of REITs market efficiency for the US having discovered two notable gaps. Noting the complexities, structural changes and nonlinearities in modern financial markets, we employ the fractional integration technique which performs better than other commonly used...