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The factor-spline-GARCH model for high and low frequency correlations
Rangel, Jose Gonzalo; Engle, Robert F. - 2009
that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables … improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons. -- Factor models ; Low … frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
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Empirical evidence on jumps and large fluctuations in individual stocks
Doung, Diep; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011
We make use of the extant testing methodology of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) and Ai͏̈t-Sahalia and Jacod (2009a,b,c) to examine the importance of jumps, and in particular "large" and "small" jumps, using high frequency price returns on 25 stocks in the DOW 30 and S&P futures index....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009151972
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Some variables are more worthy than others : new diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011
; factor ; federal reserve bank ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; monetary policy ; parameter estimation error ; proxy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130538
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Seeing inside the black box : using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in largescale macroeconomic time series environments
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011 - Rev.
production; and exchange rates. -- diffusion index ; factor ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; parameter estimation error ; proxy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130733
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An Efficient, Three-Step Algorithm for Estimating Error-Correction Models with an Application to the U.S. Macroeconomy
Boldin, Michael D. - 1998
This paper describes a three-step algorithm for estimating a system of error-correction equations that can be easily programmed using least-squares procedures. Nonetheless, the algorithm is both statistically and computationally efficient and when iterated gives maximum likelihood estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014071416
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A noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters : an application to US inflation
Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani - 2013
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724822
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A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters : An Application to U.S. Inflation
Lanne, Markku - 2013
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980s and slightly increased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084430
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Comprehensive Time-Series Regression Models Using Gretl — U.S. GDP and Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment from 1980 to 2013
Shi, Juehui - 2019
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559
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Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence
Stein, Michael; Islami, Mevlud; Lindemann, Jens - 2012
-varying correlation ; regime transition ; multivariate GARCH ; smooth transition ; cross-asset correlation ; non-linear estimation …The correlation between stock markets and interest rates has been discussed in numerous studies in the past, with … which allow for time-variability and regime changes in correlation. All estimated models allowing for timevarying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009625556
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On the Macroeconomic Determinants of Long-Term Volatilities and Correlations in U.S. Stock and Crude Oil Markets
Conrad, Christian - 2014
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price … future economic activity are helpful predictors of changes in the oil-stock correlation. For the period 1993-2011 there is … strong evidence for counter cyclical behavior of the long-term correlation. For prolonged periods with strong growth above …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066427