We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...

Based on a new concept called “Turning Period”, the goal of this report is to show how we can conduct the prediction for the outlook in the different stages for the battle with outbreak of COVID-19 currently in US, in particular, to identify when each of top 15 states in USA (basically on...

This paper investigates for the first time the effects of oil demand shocks and oil supply shocks on stock order flow imbalances leading to changes in stock returns. Through the estimation of a structural VAR model, positive oil demand shocks are able to explain almost 36% of the observed...

The classical Friday the 13th Effect refers to a calendar anomaly of financial markets which is generated by the fear of bad luck shared by the superstitious investors. As a result of their behavior, the returns from the supposed unlucky day of Friday the 13th are significant lower than those...

We examine whether and how German and US investment professionals use corporate social responsibility (hereafter, CSR) information when making personal investment decisions and recommendations to clients. Using an experiment, we find that both German and US investment professionals use CSR...

This note investigates the determinants of subordinated bank yields during the COVID-19 pandemic phase in the United States. Using Google Trends, we construct a coronavirus fear index to test the effect of health risk on the subordinated bond yields of 7 bank holding companies. With panel...

This paper investigates the role of textual information in a U.S. bank merger prediction task. Our intuition behind this approach is that text could reduce bank opacity and allow us to understand better the strategic options of banking firms. We retrieve textual information from bank annual...

This study explores financial knowledge patterns from 2009 to 2018, focusing on objective and subjective knowledge, overconfidence in financial knowledge, and “Don’t know” responses. We used four waves of National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) datasets. Objective financial knowledge...

Although some studies recently address the association between COVID-19 sentiment and returns, volatility, or stock trading volume, no one conducts an analysis to measure the impact of investor rationality or irrationality on the influence on countries and sectors' returns.This work creates a...

We explore the determinants of success of Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) defined as whether the ICO was successful in raising the funds. We look at financial and technical information disclosed by the ICO as well as the information disclosed by third parties about the ICO and the level of legal...