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Dividend momentum and stock return predictability : a Bayesian approach
Antolín-Díaz, Juan; Petrella, Ivan; Rubio-Ramírez, … - 2021
empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is … not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return … predictability, which we label "dividend momentum." Compared to estimation based on ordinary least squares, our restricted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663774
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Dividend momentum and stock return predictability: A Bayesian approach
Antolín-Díaz, Juan; Petrella, Ivan; Rubio-Ramírez, … - 2021
empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is … not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return … predictability, which we label "dividend momentum." Compared to estimation based on ordinary least squares, our restricted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819002
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The factor-spline-GARCH model for high and low frequency correlations
Rangel, Jose Gonzalo; Engle, Robert F. - 2009
We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
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Dectecting speculative bubbles in stock prices : a new approach and some evidence for the US
Bohl, Martin T.; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2001
A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503717
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Heteroeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in US stock market
Pierdzioch, Christian; Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph - 2015
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479018
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Shape evolution of the interest rate term structure
Chen, Biwei - In: Review of Economic Analysis : REA 13 (2021) 4, pp. 427-457
This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886359
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Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021 - This Version: January 8, 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180543
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Fama French Factors and US Stock Return Predictability
Panopoulou, Ekaterini - 2011
This paper investigates whether the HML, the SMB along with the short-term reversal, the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the US stock returns. Our findings suggest that these factors contain significantly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127477
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Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms : implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability
Jank, Stephan - 2012
-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such … changes resolves several issues with respect to the predictability of stock market returns: The adjusted dividend-price ratio … predictability ; dividend-price ratio ; payout policy ; sample selection ; choice of organizational structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009663676
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The Predictable Behavior of Security Returns : A Comparative Study Between US and China Markets
Luo, Yue - 2019
Jegadeesh (1990) examines the serial correlation in monthly stock returns and tests its economic significance by designing three trading strategies. In this study, we follow his research design to compare the security return predictability between US market and China market. The findings suggest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891713