A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...

We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwarU.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use theautoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model withexplanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests asignificant explanatory power of leading indicators...

Using a unique dataset collected through a well-established survey, which was carried out in China, we examine whether Chinese individuals are prone to money illusion. In contrast to the outcomes for US individuals, we find that the Chinese are more likely to base decisions on the real monetary...