The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indexes and conclude that state business cycles also can be characterized in this way. We find also that states differ a...

Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question "What is an oil shock?" and has concluded that oil-price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the US economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil...