are based on the detection of huge parameter non-constancies and a loss of equilibrium correction in two theory derived …

huge parameter non-constancies and a loss of equilibrium correction in two theory derived cointegrating relationships shown …

relations and cross-dependencies between the individual variables. This confirms economic theory and suggests more parsimonious …

shocks. We provide asymptotic theory for proxy SVARs when the VAR innovations and proxy variables are jointly α-mixing. We …

conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be used to construct early warning indicators for bubbles in financial markets … 1871, they are able to signal most of the consensus bubbles, defined as stock market booms for example by the IMF, and they … bubbles from the data. Finally, these early warning indicators are applied to data for several housing markets. In most of the …

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two … that the model is able to forecast the end of the bubbles and to identify variables highly relevant during the bubble …