The recent house price experiences within an individual's social network affect her perceptions of the attractiveness of property investments, and through this channel have large effects on her housing market activity. Our data combine anonymized social network information from Facebook with...

This paper studies how individuals believe human capital investments will affect their future career and family life. We conducted a survey of high-ability currently enrolled college students and elicited beliefs about how their choice of college major, and whether to complete their degree at...

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of...

This paper examines key facts about the U.S. housing market. The price to rent ratio is highly volatile and significantly autocorrelated. Returns on housing are positively autocorrelated. The price to rent ratio is negatively correlated with future returns on housing and future rent growth....

We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to "reverse-engineer" the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household real estate value and mortgage debt over the period 1995 to 2012....

Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this paper we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers' distribution of...

This article examines the use of concessions in the US housing market, specifically payments for closing costs, home warranties, and structural repairs. This is the first study to examine the motivations and characteristics of homeowners that utilize concessions. It also examines the impact...

This article examines the use of concessions in the US housing market, specifically payments for closing costs, home warranties, and structural repairs. This is the first study to examine the motivations and characteristics of homeowners that utilize concessions. It also examines the impact...

Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis affects households' expectations. We provide random subsets of participants in the Nielsen Homescan panel with different combinations...