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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011529095
On the labour markets, recent decades were characterised by structural supply-side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous. Before, a temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014526557
The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013349233
Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009715284
The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010198066
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010203407
This paper studies the conditional patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. We employ a structural VAR model and identify a technology shock and two policy shocks by using standard restrictions. Interestingly, the worker reallocation process varies substantially with the identified shocks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336262
Bislang liegen kaum Untersuchungen zum Einfluss von Langzeit- und Kurzzeitarbeitslosigkeit auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung vor. Deshalb haben wir mit Daten für Deutschland, getrennt nach Alter und Geschlecht, die Arbeitslosenrate nach Kurz- und Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit getrennt und untersucht,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011387803
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