Showing 1 - 10 of 3,648
. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has increased by approximately 1.5 percentage points since the 1970s, driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583137
Recent studies have indicated that the terms 'NAIRU' (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and 'natural … rate of unemployment' are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a … natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835658
A common assumption when analysing unemployment is that the economy is closed. However, the equilibrium rate of unemployment is not identified in an open economy unless the foreign sector is modeled. Therefore we set up and estimate a structural unobserved components open economy model for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012720839
In this paper, we show that in order to obtain a sound identification of Euro Area monetary policy shocks, one needs to deal with the interaction of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. In other words, a proper identification of monetary policy shocks for an open economy like...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168711
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
Persistently high unemployment rates in Germany have led to a long-running controversy on the causes of the unemployment problem. This paper aims to re­view the contribution of Keynesian and monetarist theories to this controversy and explores empirically their implications for the explanation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474695
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705521
This paper estimates the non-increasing inflation rate of unemployment or NAIRU for New Zealand. A NAIRU that varies … over time has important implications in considering inflationary pressures. This paper estimates the time-varying NAIRU … specifications and dependent variables suggests a band of NAIRU estimates of between four and five percent (with further error bands …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115562