Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 3,428
Cover Image
The equilibrium rate of unemployment and the real exchange rate : an unobserved components system approach
Lindblad, Hans; Sellin, Peter - 2003
. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has increased by approximately 1.5 percentage points since the 1970s, driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583137
Cover Image
Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
Claar, Victor V - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2002
Recent studies have indicated that the terms 'NAIRU' (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and 'natural … rate of unemployment' are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a … natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835658
Cover Image
Monetary policy shocks in open economies and the inflation unemployment trade-off : the case of the Euro Area
Ribba, Antonio - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 4, pp. 1-12
In this paper, we show that in order to obtain a sound identification of Euro Area monetary policy shocks, one needs to deal with the interaction of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. In other words, a proper identification of monetary policy shocks for an open economy like...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168711
Cover Image
The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
Cover Image
Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States : use flow rates, mind the trend
Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066
Cover Image
Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions
Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
Cover Image
Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem : theory and evidence
Gottschalk, Jan - 2002
Persistently high unemployment rates in Germany have led to a long-running controversy on the causes of the unemployment problem. This paper aims to re­view the contribution of Keynesian and monetarist theories to this controversy and explores empirically their implications for the explanation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474695
Cover Image
Hysteresis in unemployment : evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate
Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2021
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705521
Cover Image
Estimating a New Zealand NAIRU
Szeto, Kam Leong; Guy, Melody - 2004
This paper estimates the non-increasing inflation rate of unemployment or NAIRU for New Zealand. A NAIRU that varies … over time has important implications in considering inflationary pressures. This paper estimates the time-varying NAIRU … specifications and dependent variables suggests a band of NAIRU estimates of between four and five percent (with further error bands …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115562
Cover Image
A review of James Forder's "Macroeconomics and the Phillips curve myth"
Hoover, Kevin D. - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602776