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The equilibrium rate of unemployment and the real exchange rate : an unobserved components system approach

Lindblad, Hans; Sellin, Peter - 2003

. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has increased by approximately 1.5 percentage points since the 1970s, driven …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583137

Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

Claar, Victor V - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2002

Recent studies have indicated that the terms 'NAIRU' (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and 'natural … rate of unemployment' are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a … natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835658

The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate : An Unobserved Components System Approach

Lindblad, Hans - 2009

A common assumption when analysing unemployment is that the economy is closed. However, the equilibrium rate of unemployment is not identified in an open economy unless the foreign sector is modeled. Therefore we set up and estimate a structural unobserved components open economy model for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012720839

Monetary policy shocks in open economies and the inflation unemployment trade-off : the case of the Euro Area

Ribba, Antonio - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 4, pp. 1-12

In this paper, we show that in order to obtain a sound identification of Euro Area monetary policy shocks, one needs to deal with the interaction of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. In other words, a proper identification of monetary policy shocks for an open economy like...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168711

The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024

Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075

Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States : use flow rates, mind the trend

Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015

This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066

Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions

Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022

This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209

Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem : theory and evidence

Gottschalk, Jan - 2002

Persistently high unemployment rates in Germany have led to a long-running controversy on the causes of the unemployment problem. This paper aims to review the contribution of Keynesian and monetarist theories to this controversy and explores empirically their implications for the explanation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474695

Hysteresis in unemployment : evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2021

This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705521

Estimating a New Zealand NAIRU

Szeto, Kam Leong; Guy, Melody - 2004

This paper estimates the non-increasing inflation rate of unemployment or NAIRU for New Zealand. A NAIRU that varies … over time has important implications in considering inflationary pressures. This paper estimates the time-varying NAIRU … specifications and dependent variables suggests a band of NAIRU estimates of between four and five percent (with further error bands …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115562