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reciprocal relationship. The variables considered are: unemployment, inflation, consumptions, investments and current accounts … between final consumption, imports and current account, i) we show why a stable and growing inflation differential is not … sustainable, but argue that internal devalution is not an effective policy, pushing inflation rates to a worrisome lower level and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010795487
Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon … explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782134
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve … unemployment results in decreasing inflation. A linear and lagged generalized Phillips curve expressed as a link between inflation …-term inflation and unemployment forecast: the GDP deflator will be negative (between -0.5% and -2% per year) during the next 40 years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076967
The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the entire past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional … the job explains this missing inflation. We derive this novel concept of slack from a model in which a drop in the on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012222536
The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636747
The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of … labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm wage competition that can explain the missing inflation …, raising inflation by around 1 percentage point during most of 2021. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489561
The aim of this paper is to analyze and estimate salient characteristics of unemployment dynamics. Movements in unemployment are viewed as "chain reactions" of responses to labor market shocks, working their way through systems of interacting lagged adjustment processes. In the context of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273099
This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK unemployment, namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25 years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empirical “natural rate of unemployment” (NRU). Our analysis suggests that the British NRU has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273128
This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276423
This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010314559