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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
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Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions
Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
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Measuring the UK short-run NAIRU
Batini, Nicoletta; Greenslade, Jennifer V. - 2003
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which … inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the …-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517881
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The equilibrium rate of unemployment and the real exchange rate : an unobserved components system approach
Lindblad, Hans; Sellin, Peter - 2003
. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has increased by approximately 1.5 percentage points since the 1970s, driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583137
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Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine
Vdovychenko, Artem - 2022
unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better … variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013387313
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A review of James Forder's "Macroeconomics and the Phillips curve myth"
Hoover, Kevin D. - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602776
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The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis
Stockhammer, Engelbert; Sturn, Simon - 2008 - Version 2.0
Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Hypothese, dass der Grad an Arbeitsmarkthysterese in Folge einer Rezession von der Reaktion der Geldpolitik abhängt. Der Hysteresegrad wird in der empirischen Untersuchung durch die geldpolitische Reaktion und Standardvariablen für Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003772351
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Estimates of the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Hungary
Szabó, Lajos Tamás - 2015
which of the NAIRU estimation methods described in the literature can be applied to Hungary. In evaluating the results, the … growth. Based on the estimation the NAIRU has decreased in recent years. Of the factors affecting the NAIRU, the variables …-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), is used to measure inflationary pressure from the labour market. This paper examines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399270
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Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis
Jump, Robert Calvert; Stockhammer, Engelbert - 2019
The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run unemployment rate can be affected by aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012006658
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The Phillips Curve and Long-Term Unemployment
Llaudes, Ricardo - 2021
propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting … maker: It produces more accurate forecasts of inflation and more precise estimates of the NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318785