We consider a logistic transform of the monthly US unemployment rate. For this time series, a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting competition is held between linear and nonlinear models and averages of these models. To combine predictive densities, we use two complementary methods: Bayesian model...

The literature on the wage curve provides considerable evidence in favor of a negative relationship between unemployment and wages. It is thus often seen as a refutation of the Harris-Todaro model, who point to a positive relationship. This paper shows that both strands of literature are special...

This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach, based on the tests of Robinson (1994), introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework (unlike earlier studies employing a...

We incorporate a wage bargaining structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model and show how this feature changes short and long-run properties of equilibria compared with a perfectly competitive setting. We discuss how employment, capital, and income shares respond to wage setting shocks and...

We consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with collective wage bargaining and investigate how unemployment dynamics are affected by two types of budgetary policies. In line with traditional reasoning, a balanced-budget rule amplifies fluctuations in the short run, whereas an...

Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird von einem ökonomischen Standpunkt aus theoretischer Sicht untersucht, ob durch eine Lockerung des Kündigungsschutzes in Zeiten hoher Arbeitslosigkeit die Beschäftigung gesteigert werden kann, wenn die Antizipation eines hohen Kündigungsschutzes durch die...

This paper explores the effects of high skilled immigration to a host country with unionized low skilled labor and an unemployment insurance scheme. We show that such immigration can create a negative immigration surplus due to adverse effects on low skilled employment, provided that the...

In this paper, we study the effect of skill-biased technological change on unemployment when benefits are linked to the evolution of average income and when this is not the case. In the former case, an increase in the productivity of skilled workers and hence their wage leads to an increase in...