We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of...

This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets...

Unemployment swings have distributional consequences if some groups are hit harder than others. We examine if the sensitivity to local unemployment rates varies by characteristics such as health, cognitive ability and non-cognitive ability. Data on these variables come from registers covering...

This study presents a time series analysis of the cyclical relationship between the labour force participation rate and the unemployment rate in Australia over the period 1979-1998. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is employed to extract the cyclical components of the series, which are used for the...

Theoretical models of downward real wage rigidity generate asymmetric wage cyclicality with real wages being rigid in "bad" times but upwardly flexible during "good". In this paper we use an administrative panel dataset from Germany to establish that such asymmetries are very salient in Germany....

Unemployment swings have distributional consequences if some groups are hit harder than others. We examine if the sensitivity to local unemployment rates varies by characteristics such as health, cognitive ability and non-cognitive ability. Data on these variables come from registers covering...

According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.

This report analyzes the jobless recovery phenomenon observed in Mexico during the current and previous crisis. It analyzes the role of job creation and destruction in the economic cycle and researches different causes that might explain a jobless recovery. Some of these are structural change,...

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...