The authors extend methodologies from their previous research to provide estimates of the long-run trend rate of labor force participation (LFP) based on data before the Great Recession (before 2008). Their models suggest that the actual LFP rate as of the third quarter of 2014 is 0.2 to 1.2...

We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the...

This article shows that even in recent years there is a relatively robust, negative cross-state correlation between appropriate measures of unemployment and wage growth.

This article explores new evidence from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) on the extent to which “house lock”--the reluctance of households to sell their homes in a declining house price environment--has contributed to the elevated unemployment rate...

This article analyzes what is behind the recent unprecedented rise in long-term unemployment and explains what this rise might imply for the economy going forward. In particular, the authors attribute the sharp increase in unemployment duration in 2009 to especially weak labor demand and, to a...