According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.

This paper identifies the output gap using the theoretical definition of the gap within a Phillips curve. The results show that the output gap is large and persistent. Furthermore, the output gap is not correlated with the stochastic trend which is similar to the asumption used in the unobserved...

This study presents a time series analysis of the cyclical relationship between the labour force participation rate and the unemployment rate in Australia over the period 1979-1998. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is employed to extract the cyclical components of the series, which are used for the...

During the typical recovery from U.S. post-War period economic downturns, employment recovers to its pre-recession level within months of the output trough. However, during the last two recoveries, employment has taken up to two years to achieve its pre-recession benchmark. We propose a formal...

Using 15 years worth of additional data, a study is carried out to explore the extent to which the results in Rothman (1991) still hold. Using raw unfiltered data, the aggregate unemployment rate appears to be a Neftci-type symmetric process. But use of two detrending procedures produces strong...

The notion that the long-term unemployed are relatively detached from the labour market and therefore exert only little downward pressure on wage inflation has regained significant traction recently. This paper investigates whether the conclusion that long-term unemployment is only weakly...

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic unobserved components time series models with stochastic trend, seasonal and cycle components. Convenient state space formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood...

This paper estimates Okun's law in the EU15 countries between 1980 and 2018. It employs three different versions of the law with a focus on the dynamic part of the relationship. We find that the negative relationship between unemployment and output holds for most countries and is fairly stable...

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic unobserved components time series models with stochastic trend, seasonal and cycle components. Convenient state space formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood...

Asymmetric behavior has been documented in post-war quarterly U.S. unemployment rates. This suggests that improvement over conventional linear forecasts may be possible through use of nonlinear time series models. In this paper an out-of-sample forecasting competition is carried out for a set of...