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The paper studies probability forecasts of inflation and GDP by monetary authorities. Such forecasts can contribute to central bank transparency and reputation building. Problems with principal and agent make the usual argument for using scoring rules to motivate probability forecasts confused;...
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This paper reports the results of a survey among private sector economists about credibility and transparency of … Survey to answer questions on the importance and determinants of credibility. The results of both surveys are very comparable …. Credibility is considered to be important to attain price stability at low cost, while the best ways to earn credibility are a …
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flexibility and credibility; similarly, New Zealand's improved inflation performance was achieved without a discernable increase …
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This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics … for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a … pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained …
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