Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However,...

Why do people conform to rules or break them? piecing together the evidence -- Characteristics to build on -- The traditional way of enforcing the law : deterrence -- Fair and proportionate measures -- The need for cooperation -- Trust within and in organisations -- How to learn and improve...