Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real...

In this speech the Governor explains how, in the face of a slowing world economy and a continuing strong exchange rate, the Monetary Policy Committee have cut UK interest rates to encourage the growth of domestic demand and so keep on track to hit the inflation target. Although the events of 11...