This study deals with the question whether the central banks of Sweden, Denmark and the UK can really influence short-term money markets and thus, would lose this influence in case of Euro adoption. We use a GARCH-M-GED model with daily money market rates. The model reveals the co-movement...

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...

We use Bayesian time-varying parameters VARs with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in the marginal predictive content of the yield spread for output growth in the United States and the United Kingdom, since the Gold Standard era, and in the Eurozone, Canada, and Australia over the...

I develop and estimate a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates in the UK that incorporates Markov-switching. The model allows for non- neutralities, nonlinear dynamics, and flexibility in the dynamics of the risk premia - features that are all...

Whereas previous studies have focused on the causal relation between nominal interest rates, this paper examines causal relationships between real rates for the United States and six other countries. Based on evidence from our full sample, we find that U.S. and foreign interest rates are not...

The term premium is estimated from an empirically coherent open economy VAR model of the UK economy where the model specifically accounts for the mixed nature of the data and cointegration between some variables. Using this framework the estimated negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed...

The goal of this paper is to develop a test for the relative importance of the time-varying term premium and the peso-problem for rejection of the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure (EHTS). Our reasoning is based on a term structure model that allows for both phenomena simultaneously....

This paper argues that NGDP targeting is unlikely to produce macroeconomic stability. Contrary to the policy objective, NGDP targeting can increase macroeconomic turbulence. DSGE models that prove the effectiveness of NGDP stabilization policy rest on two assumptions. The first assumption is...

A monetary economy comprises a vast array of market-clearing interest rates. Central banks exert a direct influence over only a narrow subset of these rates: the rate at which they supply marginal funds to the commercial banking system. Accordingly, the market interest rates which impinge upon...

We trace the impact of the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) on the sovereign yield curve. Exploiting granular information on sectoral asset holdings and ECB asset purchases, we construct a novel measure of the "free-float of duration risk" borne by price-sensitive investors. We include this...