professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …

During the recovery from the Great Recession, inflation did not reach the central bank's 2 percent objective as quickly … contestable and damped retail inflation. This hypothesis is tested using data on the online share of retail sales, which are … sensitivity of inflation to unemployment rate changes. Improvement in fit from just including the online share is tiny—so far …

Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is …

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

This paper re-examines the findings of Alogoskoufis and Smith (1991), who argue that sharp increases in inflation … United States, Canada and Sweden, we suggest that these authors' emphasis on a post-1967 shift in inflation persistence is … misplaced and that there are other equally good candidates to account for changes in inflation persistence such as wars, oil …

This paper re-examines the findings of Alogoskoufis and Smith (1991), who argue that sharp increases in inflation … United States, Canada and Sweden, we suggest that these authors' emphasis on a post-1967 shift in inflation persistence is … misplaced and that there are other equally good candidates to account for changes in inflation persistence such as wars, oil …

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …