Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …

This paper uses a “trendy” approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …‐frequency and slow moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow‐moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

The positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is well supported by empirical evidence in the … literature. However, this does not answer the question of whether the inflation causes the inflation uncertainty and vice versa … or both in the Granger sense. The empirical evidence provided from the United Kingdom suggests that inflation and …

Market-based measures of inflation expectations can be derived either from the difference between yields on nominal and … inflation-linked government bonds or from inflation swap rates. These measures are important indicators of the outlook for … inflation and are monitored regularly by the United Kingdom's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), alongside other measures of …

This paper examines the effects of policy rate announcements on households' inflation expectations over the time period … in the policy rate on inflation expectations is significant and positive. According to the New-Keynesian model, the … information on the direction of future inflation. Given the sizeable weight of housing costs in the Swedish CPI basket, the …

This paper uses a ‘trendy' approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

This study examines the dynamic relationship between monthly inflation and inflation uncertainty in Japan, the US and … autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty, the empirical evidence … from both the linear vector autoregressive (VAR) and nonparametric regression models show that higher inflation rates lead …

This paper examines the information content of inflation forecasts derived using index-linked and conventional bonds …. The paper finds that the derived inflation term structure (ITS) gives a somewhat better indication of the bond market …'s inflation expectation than can be derived using either the nominal term structure or a variant employing strong assumptions …

This study examines the dynamic relationship between monthly inflation and inflation uncertainty in Japan, the US and … autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty, the empirical evidence … from both the linear vector autoregressive (VAR) and nonparametric regression models show that higher inflation rates lead …

This paper evaluates the properties of nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations. Are they … sets. The results show that the interest rate level is a reasonably good indicator of the level of inflation expectations …. However, changes in interest rates are poor indicators of changes in inflation expectations …