In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than … in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in …

sensitivity of inflation to unemployment rate changes. Improvement in fit from just including the online share is tiny—so far …During the recovery from the Great Recession, inflation did not reach the central bank's 2 percent objective as quickly … contestable and damped retail inflation. This hypothesis is tested using data on the online share of retail sales, which are …

a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short …This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which … inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the …

Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is … not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters …