We start this paper by presenting compelling evidence of short-term momentum in the excess returns on the S&P Composite stock price index. For the first time ever, we assume that the excess returns follow an autoregressive process of order p, AR(p), and evaluate the parameters of this process....

This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities ("gilts") based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts' nominal yields. These models bring to light...

This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and...

Testing of the expectation hypothesis (EH) for very short interest rates has provided mixed results. My paper seeks to reconcile conflicting evidence on the EH for the US repo market by exploiting the fact that repo rates are affected by the demand/supply of bonds provided as collateral against...

We use the expected logarithmic returns formula for the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) in conjunction with the expected logarithmic returns formula for the Feller diffusion to illustrate the nature and magnitude of errors which arise in computed abnormal returns when one applies an expected...

This paper revisits some recently found evidence in the literature on the cross-section of stock returns for a carefully constructed dataset of euro area stocks. First, we confirm recent results for U.S. data and find evidence of a negative cross-sectional relation between extreme positive...

One of the most puzzling findings in asset pricing is that expected returns dominate variation in the dividend-to-price ratio, leaving little room for dividend growth rates. Even more puzzling is that this dominance only emerged after 1945. We develop a present value model to argue that a...

We reaffirm the stylized fact that bond risk premia are time-varying with macroeconomic condition, even with real-time macro data instead of commonly used final revised data. While real-time data are noisier and render standard forecasts insignificant, we find that, with four efficient...

Purpose: The aim of our paper is twofold. First, we examine the predictive ability of log bookmarket, dividend-price, earnings-price and dividend-earnings ratios on the most recent data set of the strongest securities in the UK economy; unlike the majority of the studies in this data set, our...