This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

The positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is well supported by empirical evidence in the … literature. However, this does not answer the question of whether the inflation causes the inflation uncertainty and vice versa … or both in the Granger sense. The empirical evidence provided from the United Kingdom suggests that inflation and …

inflation. The estimation results show substantial time-variation in the coefficient associated with the volatility, high …

small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

forecasts are not optimal. Seemingly unrelated regressions are used to address questions concerning the inflation forecast …