We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money … kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation … forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the …

This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor … inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model framework is also applied to study the effects on inflation subcomponents in … the more recent past. The FAVAR models suggest that headline inflation in the three economies has reacted in a relatively …

After a long period of price stability, inflation returned to record levels in many parts of the world economy. This … and can explain roughly 75 percent of the inflation experience. Supply side shocks like bottlenecks in global value chains … account for the remaining 25 percent of the variance of inflation forecast errors. In the euro area, the shocks are balanced …

Eurozone? Especially in view of the European Central Bank's improved reputation as a crisis manager in the wake of the …, No UK entry and I will discuss the Eurozone view on UK membership …

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

The positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is well supported by empirical evidence in the … literature. However, this does not answer the question of whether the inflation causes the inflation uncertainty and vice versa … or both in the Granger sense. The empirical evidence provided from the United Kingdom suggests that inflation and …