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We perform variance ratio tests based on non-parametric methods to detect the size of the random walk component of the US art auction prices. The past 134 years of the US art prices exhibit large transitory component (72%) and based on this, the random walk hypothesis does not hold. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857504
Research in real estate finance and economics has been dealing with the topic of efficiency in the U.S. housing market for over 25 years. However, most recent research either examines local markets based on single homes or focuses on the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Indices (CMPHI) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014198083
We study return predictability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average indices from 1900 to 2009. We find strong evidence that time-varying return predictability is driven by changing market conditions, consistent with the implications of the adaptive markets hypothesis. During market crashes, no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148621
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001611544
Biographical note: Andrew W. Lo is the Harris & Harris Group Professor of Finance at the Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A. Craig MacKinlay is Joseph P. Wargrove Professor of Finance at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. With John Y. Campbell, they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014488591
The recent house price appreciation in the United States has renewed the interest in determining the existence of ”bubbles”. In this paper, we provide a model-free test of rational bubbles and we apply it to the U.S. housing market. Based on the current account identity, we argue that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404365
This paper studies idiosyncratic price dispersion in the US housing market. We develop a new strategy to measure dispersion at the level of individual house sales. We show that idiosyncratic price dispersion is countercyclical and seasonal, and is associated with various measures of market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849248
This paper investigates herding behavior in the US residential housing market. The sample period is 1975M01 to 2015M06. The study utilizes the housing price index of each of the 50 states and Washington DC to form nine census region-based markets, or portfolios and then employs switching and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959788
A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if it holds, market valuations must follow a random walk; hence, the hypothesis is frequently criticized on the basis of empirical evidence against such a prediction. Yet this reasoning incurs what we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009663233
A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if the hypothesis holds, then market valuations must follow a random walk. This postulate has frequently been criticized on the basis of empirical evidence. Yet the assertion itself incurs what we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009547387