Business cycles and economic growth have long been studied separately, hindering understanding of the nature and causes of economic fluctuations and growth. Here, we present an economic model that incorporates both deterministic trends and persistent fluctuations, derived from a general economic...

Macroeconomic time series often involve a threshold effect in their ARMA representation, and exhibit long memory features. In this paper we introduce a new class of threshold ARFIMA models to account for this. The threshold effect is introduced in the autoregressive and/or the fractional...

The persistence property of inflation is an important issue for not only economists, but, especially for central banks, given that the degree of inflation persistence determines the extent to which central banks can control inflation. Further, not only is the level of inflation persistence that...

We provide a method for distinguishing long-range dependence from deterministic trends such as structural breaks. The method is based on the comparison of standard log-periodogram regression estimation of the memory parameter with its tapered counterpart. The difference of these estimators...

A growing number of empirical studies provides evidence that dynamic properties of macroeconomic time series have been changing over time. Model-based procedures for the measurement of business cycles should therefore allow model parameters to adapt over time. In this paper the time dependencies...

This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques, specifically a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a) which allows for unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical frequencies. We...

In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...