The U.S. residential housing market collapse illustrates the consequences of ignoring risk while funding mortgage borrowing. Collateral over-valuation was a foundational piece of the crisis. Over the past few decades, secondary markets, securitization, policy and psychology increased the flow of...

This paper formulates and tests a model that describes the asset and financing adjustments of U.S. non-financial enterprises over the twentieth century. Asset adjustments change the expected income and operating risk of firms while financing adjustments change the financial risk. To protect debt...

This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007 which are contained in the main publications of the IMF, the OECD and the BIS and discuss issues relevant to strengthening their surveillance...

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term struc- ture and are associated with the time-varying...

It is well recognised that the issue of the social rate of discount applies only to the gains from public investment that accrues to the public sector. When it comes to measurement, however, there is a problem: public investment in infrastructure and the like do not usually yield direct...

We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies - momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns - a...

Following the financial crisis of 2007, many global financial firms faced difficulties in borrowing U.S. dollars (USD). We estimate the premium global banks paid to obtain USD (the “USD basis”) by the rate banks pay to swap euros into USD in the foreign exchange (FX) market, while fully...

We disentangle U.S. credit spreads' evolution into two distinct parts resulting from market risk and default risk influences. We consider credit spreads (versus Treasury yields) as a credit risk proxy and S&P500 stock index as a market/systematic risk proxy. Such data allow for achieving a...

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in...

We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative...