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Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the U.S.? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Our results are threefold....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429213
particular, we find that commodity price shocks explain a large share of cyclical movements in inflation. Neutral technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low … inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent. Generalized impulse response functions highlight important across …-regime differences in the responses of the economy to monetary policy and inflation shocks. Simulating both regimes with individual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950614
datain that period. To calculate asymptotically valid confidence intervals we use the delta method and two bootstrap variants … Bootstrap-Varianten. Zur Illustration analysieren wir die Unsicherheit der geschätzten Produktionslücken in den USA, in einem …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009530402
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261
This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical … effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and …) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779709
effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be statistically insignificant until mid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014090743
; and, when prices and wages are not reoptimized, they can be partially adjusted to previous-period aggregate inflation. The … joint dynamics of inflation and labor share. This function summarizes the cross-equation restrictions between the model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055643
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640