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Tiny changes in the American monetary policy can have dramatic effects on the rest of the world because of dollar's double role of national and international currency. This is the Triffin dilemma. The paper shows how it works through three examples: price of commodities, dollarization, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008648332
This paper presents a general equilibrium model with endogenous collateral constraints to study the relationship between financial development and business cycle fluctuations in a cross-section of economies with different sizes of their financial sector. The financial sector can amplify or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009692604
Whenever unemployment stays high for an extended period, it is common to see analyses, statements, and rebuttals about the extent to which the high unemployment is structural, not cyclical. This essay views the Beveridge Curve pattern of unemployment and vacancy rates and the related matching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009707552
We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544727
The US time structure of production during the 2002 through 2009 business cycle is characterized empirically using industry-level input-output data. An industry’s total industry output requirement (TIOR) is proposed as a metric for "roundaboutness". I find that the time structure of production...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014181938
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008728881
Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries, this paper provides new evidence on the dynamic effects of government spending and technology shocks on the real exchange rate and the terms of trade. To achieve identification, we derive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770998
This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the crash risk of US stock market during the … stock market crash risk. The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market … crash risk, indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk. Moreover, the negative correlation gets stronger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510333
We estimate the fiscal (spending) multiplier using quarterly U.S. data, 1986-2017. We define government spending shocks as actual minus expected expenditure growth, the latter obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We employ the ST-VAR model with the local projections method. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191269
economic policy conditions in Europe. This study provides an important implication for investment and risk management in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104516