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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States : The Fed from 1996 to 2003
Tetlow, Robert J. - 2006
We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783775
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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States : 'Robust' Policies Put to the Test
Tetlow, Robert J. - 2011
I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184898
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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States : ‘Robust’ Policies Put to the Test
Tetlow, Robert J. - 2010
I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143786
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MACRO-ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND: INDUSTRY, TRADE AND WAGES IN 6 COUNTRIES, 1960-2012
Guisan, M.C. - In: Applied Econometrics and International Development 13 (2013) 2, pp. 45-56
We analyse the impact of industry on non industrial production, as well as its effect on wages and employment in 6 OECD countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States for the period 1960-2012. Our approach to macro-econometric modelling have into account both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010748308
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Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2017
This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011627039
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Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2018
This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1979 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887044
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The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US : Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model
Kollmann, Robert - 2016
The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences - in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998137
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What is the Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks in Explaining US Macroeconomic Fluctuations?
Rossi, Barbara; Zubairy, Sarah - 2011
This paper analyzes the importance of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic fluctuations, and establishes new stylized facts. The novelty of our empirical analysis is that we jointly consider both monetary and fiscal policy, whereas the existing literature only focuses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014186718
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Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements in the Era of Unequal Growth
Azzimonti, Marina; Karpuska, Laura; Mihalache, Gabriel - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Entitlement programs have become an increasing component of total government spending in the US over the last six decades. To some observers, this growth of the welfare state is excessive and unwarranted. To others, it is a welcome counter-acting force to the rapid increase in income inequality....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210072
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In-work poverty in the United States
Kenworthy, Lane; Marx, Ive - 2017
In-work poverty became a prominent policy issue in the United States long before the term itself acquired any meaning … much in-work poverty is there in the United States? How does the US compare to other rich democracies? Has America's in …-work poverty rate changed over time? Who are the in-work poor? What are the main drivers of levels and changes in in-work poverty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011631517