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We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468789
How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce industry-level exports by cutting domestic production. We show that this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012817913
This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182390
macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for … unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by … market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010787069
.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes … declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229883
offsetting effects from the exchange rate,we use detailed product data on unit values of manufacturing imports and document that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792730
We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486241
devaluation in 1931. Using a new database on product and country-level imports from 1913 to 1940, the study concludes that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015051577
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014474963
In a two-country international trade model with oligopolistic competition, we study the conditions on market structure and trade costs under which a merger policy designed to benefit domestic consumers is too tough or too lenient from the viewpoint of the foreign country. Calibrating the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011345771