Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks,and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium andlong-range forecasts have almost always been highly erroneous. In the U.S. many energypolicy decisions are driven by Annual...

This paper’s framework for GDP in chained prices yields GDP in constant prices as a special case of constant relative prices, i.e., these GDP measures differ only when relative prices change. The framework has a novel additive procedure, counter to the prevailing view that GDP in chained...

This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1 - 2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a...