persistence of U.S. inflation. We evaluate these features by comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of two … errors depends on the level of inflation. The results of the comparison show that the parametric quantile forecasts are at … least as accurate as the semi-parametric QAR model, in particular for the core inflation measures. This leads us to conclude …

The real time supervision of inflation expectations is an important issue for monetary policymakers, especially in … heteroscedastic market based daily proxies for short, medium and long run inflation expectations. Our empirical evidence suggests that … the on-line surveillance of risk adjusted US forward breakeven inflation rates by means of the CUSUM detector appears to …

prediction of the conditional distribution of future inflation, we introduce a semi-parametric approach using conditional … different parts of the future inflation distribution. Using monthly data on US inflation, we find that unemployment rate …Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict …

The aim of the article is to clarify the controversies surrounding the relationship between inflation and unemployment … also an increase in inflation. The article, therefore, hypothesises that the relationships between unemployment and …, and Germany, during the coronavirus pandemic (from January 2020 to February 2022). The pandemic has had various adverse …

regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …

the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and … ; US Unemployment ; Time Series Models …

unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced … unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow …. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer …

unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches – the more reduced … unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow …. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer …

the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and …