We examine stock return predictability of "Out-of-The-Money (OTM) put-to-OTM call trading volume ratio" (OTMPC). Our numerical analysis predicts that informed investors hardly write OTM options because the leverage effect is not sufficient to compensate for transaction costs. OTMPC, thus,...

Using 719,830 analyst recommendations from 1994 to 2017, we construct various portfolios based on levels and changes in analyst recommendations and examine how the value of those recommendations in predicting the abnormal stock returns has changed over time. We find that the predictive value of...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

Investors’ return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents’ mental models – their subjective understanding – of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US...

The predictability of stock market is of great interest to both reseachers and investors. Despite voluminous evidence of in-sample predictability, the out-of-sample predictability of stock returns remains an ongoing debate. In this paper, motivated by both the financial theories and the well...

We estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis model of the business cycle with two investment shocks. The first, an investment-specific technology shock, affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment. The second shock affects...

We study the time-varying effects of Tobin's q and cash flow on investment dynamics in the USA using a vector autoregression model with drifting parameters and stochastic volatilities estimated via Bayesian methods. We find significant variation over time of the response of investment to shocks...

Owners of private companies often invest a substantial share of their net worth in one company, which exposes them to idiosyncratic risk. For US companies we investigate whether owners require compensation for lack of diversification in the form of higher returns to equity. Exposure to...

In this paper we attempt to investigate the importance of certain external factors on the investment decision among Polish companies. With the use of data from the tailored made Survey on Receivables we examine factors influencing investment decisions of companies in Poland, assess the relation...

In this paper, we attempt to investigate the importance of certain external factors on the investment decisions made by Polish companies. With the use of data from the tailor-made Survey on Receivables, we (1) examine factors influencing investment decisions of companies in Poland; (2) assess the...