In this paper, we develop a monthly output index for the U.S. transportation sector from January 1980 through April 2002, covering air, rail, water, truck, transit, and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index...

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual...

This paper considers the issue of predicting cyclical turning points using real-time diffusion indexes constructed using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct diffusion indexes at the monthly frequency, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and...