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including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726107
This paper studies whether the observed high correlation between monetary policy in the U.S. and the Euro area can be explained by economic fundamentals, i.e. by macroeconomic interdependence between the two regions. We show that an optimal monetary policy reaction function for the ECB that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008695549
Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank – which is near-universally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153230
theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772212
As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977769
This paper argues that assuming a common information set shared by the public and the central bank may be inappropriate when one is concerned with the value of information itself. Specifically, we argue that it may lead one to draw the conclusion that monetary policy do not benefit from accurate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583880
Negative interest rates were once seen as impossible outside the realm of economic theory. However, several central banks have recently adopted negative policy rates. The Federal Reserve is coming under increasing pressure to follow suit in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208878
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time-inconsistency due to Cukierman (2002). In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities end up generating a systematic inflation bias...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635891
This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635983
The design of monetary policy depends upon the targeting strategy adopted by the central bank. This strategy describes a set of policy preferences, which are actually the structural parameters to analyse monetary policy making. Accordingly, we develop a novel calibration method to identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011594051