This paper aims an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. For this purpose I conduct a factor analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. I use survey-based data provided by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as...

We combine an estimated monetary policy rule featuring time-varying trend inflation and stochastic coefficients with a medium scale New Keynesian framework calibrated on the U.S. economy. We find the impact of variations in trend inflation on the likelihood of equilibrium determinacy to be both...

Keynes emphasized a specific situation in which the liquidity preference becomes absolute, leading to monetary policy ineffectiveness when nominal interest approaches the zero-bound rate. This situation was termed a liquidity trap (LT) by Robertson and was popularized by the Hicks- Hansen...

Keynes emphasized a specific situation in which the liquidity preference becomes absolute, leading to monetary policy ineffectiveness when nominal interest approaches the zero-bound rate. This situation was termed a liquidity trap (LT) by Robertson and was popularized by the Hicks- Hansen...

The economic history of the United States is riddled with financial crises and banking panics. During the nineteenth-century, eight major such episodes occurred. In the period following World War II, some believed that these crises would no longer happen, and that the U.S. had reached a time of...

This paper provides an overview of the evolution of macroeconomic thought from 1936, the year John Maynard Keynes published his general theory of employment, interest and money to the year 2010. It explores the reasons for the extension of the business cycle during the postwar period. The paper...

The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences - in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more...

This paper analyzes the causes and implications of recent financial crises. Financial crises in general lead to changes in both theory and practice of economics. The paper takes an historical overview. The global consensus of economic theory during the 20th century is discussed. The paper...

This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an...

We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures....