The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...

We propose a Conditional Autoregressive Wishart (CAW) model for the analysis of realized covariance matrices of asset returns. Our model assumes a generalized linear autoregressive moving average structure for the scale matrix of the Wishart distribution allowing to accommodate for complex...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...

The real time supervision of inflation expectations is an important issue for monetary policymakers, especially in presence of economic uncertainty. In this paper we propose a novel methodology for sequential monitoring of noisy and heteroscedastic market based daily proxies for short, medium...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the US Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...