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This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003228890
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches – the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025364
This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482661
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